I met an economist, Resham Thapa out in Kirtirpur. The area was amazing, super thin, super high buildings built into the side of a mountain. It was like a dream city --> insert picture here later (bad light). He agreed to meet me the next morning for an interview near Boudha where I'm staying. Fascinating guy, he's currently applying to get his PHD and has been working in the field for some time. He was previously a professor at National College - Center for Development Studies but is affiliated with Tribhuvan University (oldest University in Nepal) now.
Summary of the 1.5 hour Interview (parts that apply to me):
Thapa - Basically Nepalese economy is divided into two parts: one is a kind of round type of economy. Almost everything is done by producers and consumers... and the other is agriculture and non-monetized economy where almost nothing is recorded for the producers and consumers.
[2:54]
...the immediate effects of strikes economically are... what happens is at first, uncertainty appears in the economy... an economy is basically in two parts... one person can be a consumer or producer... if both activities are in good equilibrium condition
[4:47]
...almost all strikes are uncertain. Almost all strikes distort information and essumptions of equilibrium individually, socially and by a government level so strikes create uncertainty of my consumption or my production...or both. Consumption of the society and production of the society or both. Consumption of the nation and production of the nation or both... uncertainty starts theoretically.
[5:40]
...one specific example --> you can think about a local tea shop. That local tea shop owner is never well informed about a strike... and for how long... what is the degree and intensity of the strike?... is it going to last for one hour, two hours, three days, four days... it is most uncertain... Because of that, one tea shop owner, couldn't predict how much milk to collect... whether to call that helper or not... how much tea he can sell... it causes much uncertainty and this milk owner, milk seller's economy becomes damaged and due to that what happens... a kind of circle in the very short run.
[6:50]
this is applicable in developed nations and underdeveloped nations... but what happens in underdeveloped nations like nepal...[goes into some examples]... you can look at the same thing with the Biratnagar Jute Mills like what happened with Mr. Thapa (rickshaw driver in my multimdia)
[8:35]
he didn't know what happened about the factory therefore he went searching for the rickshaw and he claimed himself that it's not that comfortable like the Jute Mill... the Jute Mill was always comfortable like it was certain... he could allocate certain money for education, certain money for his health... almost his whole family economy was settled. But now, though he is working, though he is earning money, his activities and his consumption activities are almost uncertain so he is unhappy... that is the fatal thing in the Nepalese case.
[10:04]
...let's assume that the Jute Mills closed for uncertainties (never mind why)... it's an industry, it's not an individual's decision, it can consume whatever we consume, I consume land, labour, capitalization individually. If I consume bread, land is embodied there, labor is embodied there, organization and capital is embodied there... it consumes the basic needs of an economy... it has a positive impact on the boarding school near by, positive impact on the local tea shop, local vegetable market...
[11:30]
it has linkages with farmers who produce raw materials...etc... at first glance the bear I can see is people will be losing jobs. Not only that, it has multiple time effects.. due to Biratnagar Jute Mills only, not just a few thousand people lose their job.. due to that a few thousand times one bigger number people will be losing their jobs
[12:30]
it means there are less taxes there... it means the government performs less services and it means the government becomes weaker and weaker. In this way it means one Biratnagar Jute Mills' bandhs, closed, strike, doesn't mean only a few thousand people would be losing jobs... long term society becomes weaker, the biratnagar area will become weaker,
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